Global struggles highlight Latin American Strengths

LatAm Investor - Global struggles highlight Latin American Strengths

LatAm Investor

Global struggles highlight Latin American Strengths

Global struggles highlight Latin American strengths

In the three months since our last issue, disaster has befallen Europe. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to thousands of deaths, millions of displaced people and plunged tens of millions around the world into poverty. Together, Russia and Ukraine account for 25% of the world’s wheat exports, 25% of gas reserves and – if you include fuels like LPG – are the largest exporters of oil products in the world. In other words – they provide us with the commodities we need to eat, heat and move.

The developed economies can pay more money to secure these scarce supplies – albeit at the cost of higher inflation – but many in poorer countries will simply go without. Recent protests in Pakistan and Sri Lanka are harbingers of the political upheaval this scarcity will cause around the world.

Commodities

With luck, the conflict will end soon and normality can return to a world economy that was only just recovering from the pandemic. Yet, and hopefully this doesn’t come across as too ghoulish, the war highlights several strengths of Latin America. The region is a net exporter of wheat, oil and countless other commodities linked to the food and petrochemical industry – for example sugar and rubber.

The value of the region’s exports has surged since the start of the war, with Capital Economics estimating that Brazil’s commodity shipments earned 35% more than in the same period last year. Not all countries in the region are oil producers but nearly all are net commodity producers that will be able to ride out the inflation better than importers like Pakistan and Sri Lanka. As a result, most Latin American countries have seen their currencies and capital markets increase since the start of the conflict.

Pax Latin Americana

But this war does more than give commodity exporters a quick bonus. It also highlights Latin America’s peaceful nature. If you omit small skirmishes between Peru and Ecuador, the last comparable, major conflict between two Latin American countries was the Chaco War between Bolivia and Paraguay in 1932. The global drugs trade has cursed Latin America with narco cartels, but you don’t get tanks rolling across the plains or children being bombed from the air.

Investors often complain about political risk in Latin America but it is more peaceful than Eastern Europe and more democratic than most of Asia or Africa.

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Global Economic Prospects: Slowing Growth and the Risk of Stagflation | World Bank Expert Answers

The World Bank

Global Economic Prospects: Slowing Growth and the Risk of Stagflation | World Bank Expert Answers

Global Economic Prospects: Slowing Growth and the Risk of Stagflation | World Bank Expert Answers

 

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CrossBoundary On June 2nd, join Prosper Africa and a group of leading African Diaspora investors and entrepreneurs to hear the opportunities for early-stage investment in African markets at the Diaspora Angel Investors webinar.

CrossBoundary - Prosper Africa

CrossBoundary On June 2nd, join Prosper Africa and a group of leading African Diaspora investors and entrepreneurs to hear the opportunities for early-stage investment in African markets at the Diaspora Angel Investors webinar.

On June 2nd, join Prosper Africa and a group of leading African Diaspora investors and entrepreneurs to hear the opportunities for early-stage investment in African markets at the Diaspora Angel Investors webinar. Register here to join the discussion: https://bit.ly/3lM6hQ8


Americas Quarterly

The campaign towards the runoff on June 19 could further polarize the country.

As polls had predicted, Gustavo Petro (Pacto Histórico) placed first in the first round of the Colombian presidential election on May 29 with a 40% lead. The runner-up, Rodolfo Hernández (Independent) who had surged in polls in the last few weeks, amassed 28% of the preference.

The campaign towards the runoff election for the Colombian presidency on June 19 has already started with Hernández receiving the support of the third-place candidate, Fico Gutiérrez, who received about 24% of the votes.

AQ asked several observers to share their reaction.

Theodore Kahn, senior analyst in Control Risks’ Global Risk Analysis practice

Colombians delivered a stunning rejection of the traditional political class in the first round of presidential elections on Sunday. Gustavo Petro, a left-wing former guerrilla, finished first with 40.3% of the votes—the best performance for the left in Colombia’s modern history. Petro wants to overturn the social and economic model by ending new oil and mining exploration, guaranteeing public jobs for the unemployed, and ramping up protection for domestic industry and agriculture. The runner-up, Rodolfo Hernández, is an ideologically ambiguous populist and political outsider. His campaign, notably light on policy proposals, was all about throwing out the corrupt political class. Federico Gutiérrez, a conservative who had the support of traditional political parties, finished third, winning only in his native Antioquia department.

Hernández had been gaining fast in the polls in the two weeks leading up to the first round, but many analysists questioned whether this would translate into votes. It did. Hernández dominated in the Central and Eastern regions of Colombia, winning 13 of 32 departments overall. His support in rural areas and small towns in the Andean heartland was overwhelming. Hernández won all but 4 of the 123 municipalities of Boyacá department and all but 10 of 116 municipalities in Cundinamarca.

What explains this unexpected success? First, it is clear he occupied a strategic space in the political field, at the intersection of anti-establishment and anti-Petro sentiment. Second, while other candidates debated policy (occasionally) and traded insults on Twitter (often), Hernández hammered away at a simple message: corrupt traditional politicians are to blame for all the country’s problems. In this regard, he may have exposed a weakness in Petro’s campaign that few saw coming—after four years in the national political spotlight, Petro had become part of the political class for many voters. Finally, the cantankerous 77-year-old proved a master of social media—TikTok being his platform of choice.

Whatever the explanation, one thing is clear: Hernández, who was barely known outside his native Santander department several months ago, is now on the doorstep of Casa de Nariño.  He is riding a wave of momentum driven by two powerful forces—anger at the establishment and fear of the left. He will likely attract a large majority of the more than 5 million voters, mostly conservatives, who supported Gutiérrez on May 29. He will also draw backing from more progressive sectors such as the Green Alliance party and other parties that formed part of the center-left Hope Coalition.

How Hernández would govern remains a mystery. In the coming days, he will start to unveil a potential cabinet, which will likely include market-friendly technocrats that reassure the political and economic elite. His campaign platform reflects his instincts as a self-made businessman: he wants to cut taxes and red tape while also protecting and promoting domestic industry. Of course, it would be a mistake to count Petro out. He won over 8.5 million votes on the first round, with commanding victories in major cities such as Bogotá and Cali, and the populous Caribbean coast.

Whoever wins will face the enormous challenge of meeting the powerful demand for change that drove Colombians to the polls on May 29.


Investor and rising interest rates hit Latin America

LatAm Investor

Investor and rising interest rates hit Latin America

LatAm Investor

Inflation and rising interest rates are set to dampen the region’s economic recovery, writes Pollyanna De Lima, Economics Associate Director Economic Indices, S&P Global…

In line with the global picture, the economic outlook for Latin America has weakened since the last issue as prevailing headwinds were exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine war. Rising interest rates, acute price pressures, income squeezes, turbulence in capital flows and COVID-19 loom large as key risks to growth.

Official statistics data showed that output returned to pre-pandemic levels in Brazil and Colombia, but Mexico is yet to post a full recovery. Timely PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index) data indicated that Brazil’s manufacturing sector recovered in March from the pandemic- related downturns seen around the turn of the year, with growth gathering pace in Colombia. Economic conditions remained challenging in Mexico, however, as goods production fell at a faster pace at the end of the first quarter.

In January’s update of the World Economic Outlook, the IMF downgraded the 2022 GDP forecasts for Brazil (from +1.5% to +0.3%) and Mexico (from +4.0% to +2.8%), owing to the new wave of COVID-19, the reintroduction of restrictions, energy price volatility and lingering problems in supply chains. Further downward revisions are expected in the April update as the impacts of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are accounted for alongside strong monetary policy tightening in response to mounting inflationary pressures and their bearing on consumption and investment.


Financing Climate Change Adaptation in Latin America

Americas Quarterly

Financing Climate Change Adaptation in Latin America

Financing Climate Change Adaptation in Latin America

On May 26, AQ hosted a conversation about the transition to a low-carbon economy.

 

Climate change poses an urgent threat to the Western Hemisphere and will be a top agenda item at the Summit of the Americas in June. How can tools like green bonds and ESG requirements assist in the transition to a low-carbon economy? On May 26, Americas Quarterly convened a group of experts to discuss green finance and climate change adaptation strategies for Latin America. This event launched AQ’s special report on the Summit of the Americas.

This event was hosted by:

 

 

The event was livestreamed on this page on May 26, 2022 at 10 a.m. ET.

You can also watch this event on Twitter and YouTube.

Speakers:

  • Reina Irene Mejía Chacón, Executive Vice President at the Inter-American Development Bank
  • Laura Segafredo, Global Head of Sustainable Research, ETF and Index investments at BlackRock @LauraSegafredo
  • José Daniel Madrigal, Economics Specialist at the Honduras Resident Coordinator’s Office of the United Nations @JoseMadrigal92
  • Brian Winter, Vice President for Policy, AS/COA and Editor-in-Chief, Americas Quarterly @BrazilBrian (moderator)

SASB Standards connect business and investors on the financial impacts of sustainability.

SASB Standards

SASB Standards connect business and investors on the financial impacts of sustainability.

Integrating SASB Standards Into a Dynamic ESG Composite Score

Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) factors are among the most significant drivers of change in the world today with major implications for businesses and long-term investors. Global markets are increasingly focusing on factors that drive long-term enterprise value, and intangibles now represent the lion’s share of this value. Investors regard many ESG matters as critical elements of corporate resilience with a growing focus on corporate behavior, climate change, technological evolution, social equity, and human capital management.

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Financing climate change - MPX Network News

Americas Quarterly

Join AQ Editor-in-Chief Brian Winter and panel guests Reina Irene Mejía ChacónLaura Segafredo and José Daniel Madrigal at 10 am this Thursday, May 26 for a conversation about green finance and climate adaptation in Latin America.

Sign up here for this virtual event: https://lnkd.in/eezDhRMF


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